Colorado Springs, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS65 KPUB 160503
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1103 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather conditions southern areas Sat-Sun with chance
  for strong to severe storms Palmer Divide and northern
  portions of the southeast plains

- Cooler Mon-Tue with a better chance for showers, especially
  Pikes Peak region.

- Gradually warming mid to late week with isolated daily thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Isolated thunderstorms will develop across the mountains and plains
this afternoon with high based dry lightning and gusty winds the
primary concerns.  Latest HREF develop these along the I-25 corridor
towards 6 PM before moving them off to the east through the
evening ahead of a weak shortwave moving through westerly flow
aloft. These should exit into KS by around or shortly after
midnight.

Next upper trough approaches out west on Saturday.  Shallow front
which makes a weak push into the southeast plains tonight will lift
back northward in the afternoon as southwesterly mid/upper level
winds increase ahead of the system.  Dry air spreads northward off
the Raton Ridge as breezy southwest winds mix down in the
afternoon, with the front laying up across northern portions of
the southeast plains in the afternoon. This will put critical
fire weather conditions across much of the southeast and central
mountains, and southern plains where fuels are critical. Have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and added
a tier of counties to the north along the I-25 corridor. To the
north of the front, isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible across portions of El Paso, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers
counties. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary risks with
HREF showing highest CAPEs (1000-1500 J/kg) across Kiowa and
Prowers counties. Thunderstorms may be a bit higher based for El
Paso county with gusty winds and small hail the primary risks.
But will need to see what happens with the tail end of the DCVZ
and how far westward low level dew points return. Otherwise it
will be another warm day across southern CO with temperatures
well above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

The upper trough weakens and fills as it kicks northeastward
across CO Sat night. Front drops through a portion of the
southeast plains then lifts back north again on Sunday as
southwest flow aloft increases again ahead of the next lobe of
energy dropping towards the Great Basin Sun afternoon. Position
of the frontal boundary will be pivotal in determining where
higher pops and severe thunderstorm chances will set up to the
north Sun afternoon versus gusty southwest winds and high fire
danger to the south. Consensus of NBM members lifts the front
back northward to along the Palmer Divide and across the east
central plains and have opted to put up another Fire Weather
Watch for Sunday for most of the southeast mountains and plains
where fuels are critical. Kiowa county and southern El Paso
counties carry the greatest uncertainty right now. Have opted to
keep southern El Paso out of the watch for now, but put Kiowa
county in. Further modifications may be needed as confidence
increases in these details.

Damaging winds and large hail will be possible with severe
storms to the north of the front. Elsewhere it will be warm and
windy with isolated to scattered mountain showers and
thunderstorms possible though fuels are either not critical or
humidity values a tad too high for Fire Weather highlights.

Cold front makes a stronger push southward into the southeast plains
Sunday night with the upper trough pivoting to the northeast across
CO on Monday.  Stratus and light showers develop overnight into
Monday morning across the mountains and portions of the I-25
corridor. Front tries to lift back northward in the afternoon but
will likely hang up near or just south of the Arkansas River
valley in the afternoon. Right now it appears pretty stable
behind the front with marginal dew point recovery, so this may
end up being a cloudy day with some stratiform light
precipitation sin the morning along and just east of the
mountains. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon over the mountains where a little better instability
may be realized. NBM suggests Monday night could be flirting
with a freeze but suspect clouds and higher dew points will keep
temperatures above freezing across the southeast plains.

Front drops southward again Monday evening with Tuesday starting out
cloudy and cool before clouds break and thunderstorms develop over
the mountains in the afternoon.  Dew point return looks meager and
CAPE modest at best, with a couple hundred J/kg across the
southeast mountains. This will likely limit storm strengths
even as another trough glances by to the north Tues night/Wed.

Upper flow gradually transitions to a more zonal pattern for
mid to late week yielding a warm up and a little less
thunderstorm activity, though at least some isolated mountain
pops will be maintained most days. Don`t really see any obvious
critical fire weather days next week though the mountains will
be breezy at times.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected across KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
through 24 hours.

KALS: Winds lighten overnight, with gusty southwest winds picking up
Saturday afternoon, to around 25 knots.

KCOS and KPUB: Passing virga will bring brief periods of light rain
showers and gusty outflow winds, around 25-30 knots, mainly to
COS, for a few more hours tonight. Once those dissipate, by 08-
09Z or so, winds lighten overnight. By Saturday afternoon,
gusty southeast winds will pick up around 25 knots, lasting into
the early evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri May 15 2026

Isolated dry lightning will be possible across portions of the
southeast plains this evening before storms push eastward into
Kansas. Much like yesterday, these could cause isolated fire
starts where fuels are receptive.

Winds increase for Saturday and Sunday with Sunday being the
windiest and driest day. Fire Weather Watches have been upgraded
to Red Flag Warnings for Saturday and expanded slightly
northeastward. New Fire Weather Watches have been posted for
most of the southeast mountains and plains on Sunday. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220-
222-225-228>233-235-237.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ222-225-228>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
FIRE WEATHER...KT